PG
About

Paul Graham is a British-born American programmer, essayist, and co-founder of Y Combinator known for influential essays on startups, technology, and the future of work.

19
Total Predictions
14
Resolved
71.4%
Accuracy Rate
7
Correct
Prediction History
AI will disrupt entry-level coding jobs but top programmers who can start their own companies will still command top salaries
Predicted: August 1, 2025
Due: January 1, 2030
Unresolved
MBA high unemployment will continue
Predicted: January 1, 2025
Due: January 1, 2030
Unresolved
In a couple decades there won't be many people who can write
Predicted: October 1, 2024
Due: January 1, 2044
Unresolved
Most successful companies will follow Coinbase's lead in staying focused
Predicted: April 1, 2024
Due: January 1, 2027
Unresolved
The cryptocurrency economy will shortly experience a systemic risk
Predicted: November 20, 2022
Due: June 1, 2023
Resolved: September 8, 2025
Incorrect
There will be a rapid switch away from meat at some point
Predicted: March 1, 2019
Due: January 1, 2029
Unresolved
Angel rounds will become less restrictive and more standardized
Predicted: August 1, 2010
Due: January 1, 2020
Resolved: September 8, 2025
Correct
Startups will do rolling closes instead of fixed round sizes
Predicted: August 1, 2010
Due: January 1, 2020
Resolved: September 8, 2025
Partially Correct
Fundraising rounds will start to close faster
Predicted: August 1, 2010
Due: January 1, 2020
Resolved: September 8, 2025
Partially Correct
Investors will be unable to offer investment subject to contingencies like other people investing
Predicted: August 1, 2010
Due: January 1, 2020
Resolved: September 8, 2025
Partially Correct
Founders will become increasingly powerful relative to investors
Predicted: August 1, 2010
Due: January 1, 2020
Resolved: September 8, 2025
Correct
VCs will make smaller series A rounds by taking fewer board seats
Predicted: August 1, 2010
Due: January 1, 2020
Resolved: September 8, 2025
Partially Correct
There will be a lot more web startups - orders of magnitude more will be started
Predicted: October 1, 2007
Due: January 1, 2017
Resolved: September 8, 2025
Correct
Startups will become a more normal thing to do, with younger and more technical founders
Predicted: October 1, 2007
Due: January 1, 2017
Resolved: September 8, 2025
Correct
Startup hubs like Silicon Valley will persist and become more important, not less
Predicted: October 1, 2007
Due: January 1, 2017
Resolved: September 8, 2025
Correct
Elite universities will play less of a role as gatekeepers in a world of startups
Predicted: October 1, 2007
Due: January 1, 2017
Resolved: September 8, 2025
Partially Correct
Technology will evolve faster because people won't wait as long to act on ideas and ideas will be developed in startups rather than big companies
Predicted: October 1, 2007
Due: January 1, 2017
Resolved: September 8, 2025
Correct
Investment terms will become standardized, especially for angel rounds
Predicted: October 1, 2007
Due: January 1, 2017
Resolved: September 8, 2025
Correct
Big companies will develop standardized procedures for acquisitions that make them little more work than hiring someone
Predicted: October 1, 2007
Due: January 1, 2017
Resolved: September 8, 2025
Partially Correct