About
Author of the Network State. Founder of the Network School.
47
Total Predictions
10
Resolved
80.0%
Accuracy Rate
8
Correct
Prediction History
Over 100 US military bases will be shut down over the next few years.
Predicted: September 6, 2025
Due: January 20, 2029
Unresolved
Astronauts from a Chinese space program will land on the Moon before a new post-Apollo attempt is successful by an American space program, public or private.
Predicted: August 19, 2025
Unresolved
Indian energy production will surpass the EU within 5 years.
Predicted: August 18, 2025
Due: August 18, 2030
Unresolved
India will not overtake China in manufacturing capacity within the next 10 years.
Predicted: August 18, 2025
Due: January 1, 2035
Unresolved
China will be completely dominant physically, but less strong on the global (non-Chinese) Internet.
Predicted: August 18, 2025
Unresolved
The Internet will be split among major human-only, AI-only, and mixed spaces.
Predicted: August 7, 2025
Due: August 7, 2030
Unresolved
The majority of IPOs will be done on Internet capital markets.
Predicted: August 3, 2025
Due: January 1, 2030
Unresolved
If Zohran Mamdani wins, most major financial institutions based in New York City will move to Miami.
Predicted: June 24, 2025
Due: June 24, 2029
Unresolved
AI prices will lower significantly by open-source models.
Predicted: March 30, 2025
Due: March 30, 2029
Unresolved
More humanoid robots than humans by 2040
Predicted: January 1, 2025
Due: December 31, 2040
Unresolved
Digital borders and access controls will become more important than physical borders
Predicted: January 1, 2025
Due: December 31, 2032
Unresolved
Financial 'neutron bomb' - fiat currency collapse while infrastructure remains intact
Predicted: January 1, 2025
Due: December 31, 2032
Unresolved
Internet will reorganize society vertically by time zones rather than horizontally by geography
Predicted: January 1, 2025
Due: December 31, 2032
Unresolved
By 2040, Democrats will side with Chinese communists and Republicans will become Bitcoin maximalists
Predicted: January 1, 2025
Due: December 31, 2040
Unresolved
Investment shift from real estate to Bitcoin will accelerate
Predicted: January 1, 2025
Due: December 31, 2030
Unresolved
US dollar will experience 'super-bitcoinization' - gradual hyperinflation vs Bitcoin
Predicted: January 1, 2025
Due: December 31, 2035
Unresolved
All property will become cryptography - digital signatures will control physical assets
Predicted: January 1, 2025
Due: December 31, 2035
Unresolved
AI will create jobs in verification and prompting, not eliminate all jobs
Predicted: January 1, 2024
Due: December 31, 2028
Unresolved
AI will be polytheistic (many AIs) not monotheistic (one dominant AI)
Predicted: January 1, 2024
Due: December 31, 2030
Unresolved
Bitcoin will reach $1 million within 90 days due to US hyperinflation
Predicted: March 17, 2023
Due: June 17, 2023
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect
US banking system will become insolvent leading to hyperinflation
Predicted: March 1, 2023
Due: March 1, 2024
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect
Energy pricing in joules will become fundamental measure of true production costs
Predicted: January 1, 2023
Due: December 31, 2033
Unresolved
Prompting will endure as a core AI interaction method, not be replaced by full autonomy
Predicted: January 1, 2023
Due: December 31, 2025
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Correct
Drones (flying, swimming, walking) will become ubiquitous in all industries
Predicted: January 1, 2023
Due: December 31, 2030
Unresolved
Telepresence and drone control will enable global remote physical work
Predicted: January 1, 2023
Due: December 31, 2030
Unresolved
American Anarchy - Second American Civil War triggered by Bitcoin seizures
Predicted: July 1, 2022
Due: December 31, 2035
Unresolved
Source: https://thenetworkstate.com/
Network States will achieve diplomatic recognition from existing nation-states
Predicted: July 1, 2022
Due: December 31, 2032
Unresolved
Source: https://thenetworkstate.com/
Chinese Control - CCP will prevent Chinese from freely leaving digital yuan network
Predicted: July 1, 2022
Due: December 31, 2030
Unresolved
Source: https://thenetworkstate.com/
US establishment will copy CCP surveillance methodology
Predicted: July 1, 2022
Due: December 31, 2035
Unresolved
Source: https://thenetworkstate.com/
Cloud cities and network archipelagos will own distributed physical territory globally
Predicted: July 1, 2022
Due: December 31, 2035
Unresolved
Source: https://thenetworkstate.com/
Companies will put their financial statements on-chain for transparency
Predicted: January 1, 2022
Due: December 31, 2030
Unresolved
Regulatory bottlenecks (like FDA) will be bypassed by startup societies in new jurisdictions
Predicted: January 1, 2022
Due: December 31, 2030
Unresolved
Machine learning will enable life expectancy prediction from facial photos
Predicted: January 1, 2022
Due: December 31, 2027
Unresolved
By 2040, half the world's population will store substantial portion of assets on-chain
Predicted: January 1, 2022
Due: December 31, 2040
Unresolved
China will become militarily and economically stronger than the US
Predicted: January 1, 2022
Due: December 31, 2035
Unresolved
Source: https://thenetworkstate.com/
Remote work will accelerate due to coronavirus
Predicted: January 30, 2020
Due: December 31, 2020
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Correct
Social isolation will become widespread due to coronavirus
Predicted: January 30, 2020
Due: December 31, 2020
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Correct
Hotels and tourism will collapse due to coronavirus
Predicted: January 30, 2020
Due: December 31, 2020
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Correct
Border closures will accelerate due to coronavirus pandemic
Predicted: January 30, 2020
Due: December 31, 2020
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Correct
Distrust in government will increase due to coronavirus
Predicted: January 30, 2020
Due: December 31, 2021
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Correct
Face masks will become common due to coronavirus
Predicted: January 30, 2020
Due: December 31, 2020
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Correct
Nationalism will increase due to coronavirus pandemic
Predicted: January 30, 2020
Due: December 31, 2020
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Correct
Life extension/youth extension will become technically achievable, aging is reversible
Predicted: January 1, 2020
Due: December 31, 2035
Unresolved
Every company will become a media company (dissolve PR departments)
Predicted: January 1, 2020
Due: December 31, 2028
Unresolved
Traditional media business model will completely collapse, replaced by direct creator funding
Predicted: January 1, 2020
Due: December 31, 2030
Unresolved
By 2040, everyone under 30 will have never known a world without Bitcoin
Predicted: January 1, 2019
Due: December 31, 2040
Unresolved
FDA will be bypassed or replaced by alternative regulatory systems
Predicted: January 1, 2017
Due: December 31, 2030
Unresolved