EM

Elon Musk

XTeslaSpaceX
About

Elon Musk is a South African–born American entrepreneur who leads Tesla, SpaceX and X (formerly Twitter) and is among the world’s richest people.

62
Total Predictions
27
Resolved
14.8%
Accuracy Rate
4
Correct
Prediction History
In about 6 or 7 years Starship will launch more than 24 times in 24 hours
Predicted: September 3, 2025
Due: December 31, 2032
Unresolved

Source: https://www.aol.com/finance/elon-musk-predicts-6-7-052700334.html

80% of Tesla's value will be Optimus
Predicted: September 1, 2025
Due: December 31, 2030
Unresolved

Source: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/elon-musks-big-prediction-on-tesla-says-tesla-will-derive-about-80-of-its-value-from-and-its-not-electric-cars/articleshow/123675622.cms

Neuralink could attempt to restore limited sight to visually impaired patients as early as 2026
Predicted: August 25, 2025
Due: December 31, 2026
Unresolved

Source: https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-reiterates-most-optimistic-prediction-yet-uhi/

First flight to Mars without humans in ~3.5 years, next flight ~5.5 years with humans
Predicted: August 10, 2025
Due: December 31, 2030
Unresolved

Source: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/elon-musk-gives-timeline-of-first-starship-flight-to-mars-with-humans-and-self-sustaining-mars-city-more-likely-by-/articleshow/123234617.cms

Mars city self-sustaining in 20 to 30 years
Predicted: August 10, 2025
Due: December 31, 2055
Unresolved

Source: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/elon-musk-gives-timeline-of-first-starship-flight-to-mars-with-humans-and-self-sustaining-mars-city-more-likely-by-/articleshow/123234617.cms

A $150,000 investment in Tesla right now would likely make you a millionaire
Predicted: August 5, 2025
Due: December 31, 2030
Unresolved

Source: https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-stock-gets-crazy-prediction-ceo-elon-musk/

The ability to play video games at the wheel will be available in probably 3 to 6 months
Predicted: August 3, 2025
Due: February 3, 2026
Unresolved

Source: https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-reveals-ideal-timeline-for-insane-self-driving-feature/

Tesla robots could deliver meals to cars by 2026
Predicted: July 23, 2025
Due: December 31, 2026
Unresolved

Source: https://mikekalil.com/blog/tesla-optimus-gen-3-production-update/

Neuralink plans to implant 20,000 people a year by 2031
Predicted: July 23, 2025
Due: December 31, 2031
Unresolved

Source: https://qz.com/elon-musk-neuralink-predicts-20000-brain-chip-implants-per-year-2031

Autonomous ride hailing in half the population of the U.S. by EOY
Predicted: July 1, 2025
Due: December 31, 2025
Unresolved

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk

Tesla has a shot at being the most valuable company in the world
Predicted: July 1, 2025
Due: December 31, 2030
Unresolved

Source: https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-stock-gets-crazy-prediction-ceo-elon-musk/

AI will superset the intelligence of any single human by the end of 2025 and maybe all humans by 2027/2028
Predicted: May 18, 2025
Due: December 31, 2028
Unresolved

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1kpj59z/elon_musk_timelines_for_singularity_are_very/

Millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously by the second half of next year
Predicted: April 1, 2025
Due: December 31, 2026
Unresolved

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk

Human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely
Predicted: March 15, 2025
Due: December 31, 2031
Unresolved

Source: https://www.ladbible.com/news/science/elon-musk-prediction-send-spaceship-mars-2026-482113-20250316

Starship departs for Mars at the end of next year, carrying Optimus
Predicted: March 15, 2025
Due: December 31, 2026
Unresolved

Source: https://www.ladbible.com/news/science/elon-musk-prediction-send-spaceship-mars-2026-482113-20250316

Tesla could produce around 5,000 Optimus robots this year
Predicted: January 1, 2025
Due: December 31, 2025
Unresolved

Source: https://www.wired.com/story/theres-a-very-simple-pattern-to-elon-musks-broken-promises/

Tesla will be building between 500,000 and 1 million robots by the end of 2027
Predicted: January 1, 2025
Due: December 31, 2027
Unresolved

Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/elon-musk-tesla-optimus-robots-b2819277.html

Tesla to launch unsupervised Full Self-Driving service in Austin in June
Predicted: January 1, 2025
Due: June 30, 2025
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Correct

Source: https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-makes-crazy-prediction-for-tesla-robotaxi-by-end-of-2025/

Tesla might produce 50,000-ish Optimus next year
Predicted: January 1, 2025
Due: December 31, 2026
Unresolved

Source: https://www.wired.com/story/theres-a-very-simple-pattern-to-elon-musks-broken-promises/

Tesla's profit could 10x over the next 5 years
Predicted: January 1, 2025
Due: December 31, 2030
Unresolved

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-predicts-teslas-profit-174645234.html

First Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens
Predicted: September 1, 2024
Due: December 31, 2026
Unresolved

Source: https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/elon-musk-predicts-crewed-spacex-flights-mars-2028-hopes-self-sustaining-city-planet

Combined I/O bit rate >1Mbs and augmented humans >1M by 2030
Predicted: August 1, 2024
Due: December 31, 2030
Unresolved

Source: https://www.pcgamer.com/hardware/in-2024-elon-musk-predicted-that-hundreds-of-millions-of-people-will-have-his-brain-chips-within-the-next-20-years-so-dont-forget-to-hold-him-to-it/

Maybe 100 million robots a year
Predicted: January 1, 2024
Due: December 31, 2040
Unresolved

Source: https://www.wired.com/story/theres-a-very-simple-pattern-to-elon-musks-broken-promises/

By 2040 there will be more humanoid robots on Earth than human beings
Predicted: January 1, 2024
Due: December 31, 2040
Unresolved

Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/elon-musk-tesla-optimus-robots-b2819277.html

Humans may be able to surf the web with their thoughts by the end of 2030
Predicted: January 1, 2024
Due: December 31, 2030
Unresolved

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/surfing-brain-2030-neuralinks-9b-160059636.html

Tens of millions of robots produced by Elon Musk's companies annually
Predicted: January 1, 2024
Due: December 31, 2035
Unresolved

Source: https://www.wired.com/story/theres-a-very-simple-pattern-to-elon-musks-broken-promises/

Hundreds of millions of people will have Neuralink brain chips within the next 20 years
Predicted: January 1, 2024
Due: December 31, 2044
Unresolved

Source: https://www.pcgamer.com/hardware/in-2024-elon-musk-predicted-that-hundreds-of-millions-of-people-will-have-his-brain-chips-within-the-next-20-years-so-dont-forget-to-hold-him-to-it/

Probably sometime in 2025 for quarter-million production
Predicted: October 1, 2023
Due: December 31, 2025
Unresolved

Source: https://www.fastcompany.com/90969771/cybertruck-tesla-timeline-delay-stock-earnings

SpaceX could land on Mars in 3 to 4 years
Predicted: October 1, 2023
Due: December 31, 2027
Unresolved

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/science/elon-musk-spacex-starship-mars.html

Tesla will end up producing roughly a quarter-million Cybertrucks a year
Predicted: October 1, 2023
Due: December 31, 2025
Unresolved

Source: https://www.fastcompany.com/90969771/cybertruck-tesla-timeline-delay-stock-earnings

Better-than-human autonomous self driving by Tesla vehicles by EOY
Predicted: July 1, 2023
Due: December 31, 2023
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk

AI will achieve AGI by 2030
Predicted: January 15, 2023
Due: December 31, 2030
Unresolved

Source: https://www.geeky-gadgets.com/elon-musks-predictions/

Neuralink to begin human trials in six months
Predicted: December 1, 2022
Due: June 30, 2023
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Correct

Source: https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musk-says-expects-neuralink-begin-human-trials-six-months-2022-12-01/

Even if someone has never had vision, like they were born blind, we believe we can still restore vision
Predicted: December 1, 2022
Due: December 31, 2030
Unresolved

Source: https://www.reuters.com/technology/elon-musk-says-expects-neuralink-begin-human-trials-six-months-2022-12-01/

I think I see a path to Twitter exceeding a billion monthly users in 12 to 18 months
Predicted: November 26, 2022
Due: May 26, 2024
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-twitter-over-1-billion-monthly-users-2-years/

Twitter will have more than a billion users a month by 2024
Predicted: November 26, 2022
Due: December 31, 2024
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-predicts-twitter-have-billion-users-month-by-2024-2022-11

Cybertruck production to start in mid-2023
Predicted: June 1, 2022
Due: July 31, 2023
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://electrek.co/2023/01/26/tesla-updates-cybertruck-production-timeline-temper-expectations/

Twitter's total users will grow from 217 million to nearly 600 million in 2025 and 931 million by 2028
Predicted: May 6, 2022
Due: December 31, 2028
Unresolved

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/06/technology/elon-musk-twitter-pitch-deck.html

Twitter to generate $26.4 billion in revenue by 2028
Predicted: May 6, 2022
Due: December 31, 2028
Unresolved

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/06/technology/elon-musk-twitter-pitch-deck.html

Cybertruck production to start in late 2022
Predicted: January 1, 2021
Due: December 31, 2022
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://electrek.co/2023/01/26/tesla-updates-cybertruck-production-timeline-temper-expectations/

Reliable Tesla self-driving by EOY (2021)
Predicted: January 1, 2021
Due: December 31, 2021
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk

Reliable Tesla self-driving by EOY (2020)
Predicted: July 1, 2020
Due: December 31, 2020
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk

Robotaxi functionality rolled out in 2020
Predicted: April 1, 2020
Due: December 31, 2020
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk

Kids are essentially immune to coronavirus
Predicted: March 19, 2020
Due: December 31, 2020
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2021/03/13/elon-musks-false-covid-predictions-a-timeline/

Close to zero new COVID cases in US too by end of April
Predicted: March 19, 2020
Due: April 30, 2020
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2021/03/13/elon-musks-false-covid-predictions-a-timeline/

Tesla will become the world's largest car manufacturer by 2035
Predicted: January 1, 2020
Due: December 31, 2035
Unresolved

Source: https://futurism.com/timeline-elon-musk-predictions

Cybertruck would launch by the end of 2021 with starting price of $39,900
Predicted: November 1, 2019
Due: December 31, 2021
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Cybertruck

Over 1 million robotaxis on the road by next year
Predicted: April 1, 2019
Due: December 31, 2020
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk

I think we'll get to full self-driving next year
Predicted: November 1, 2018
Due: December 31, 2019
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk

We could probably do a coast-to-coast drive in 3 months, 6 months at the outside
Predicted: February 1, 2018
Due: August 31, 2018
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk

Loop system between downtown Chicago and O'Hare Airport would deliver passengers in about 12 minutes
Predicted: January 1, 2018
Due: December 31, 2025
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://gizmodo.com/elon-musks-worst-predictions-and-broken-promises-1851398745/3

Neuralink would release a viable product for treating brain injuries by 2021
Predicted: April 1, 2017
Due: December 31, 2021
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://futurism.com/timeline-elon-musk-predictions

Trips around the Moon by 2018
Predicted: February 1, 2017
Due: December 31, 2018
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://qz.com/elon-musks-worst-predictions-promises-1851410720

Full self-driving demonstration drive from LA to New York by the end of next year
Predicted: October 1, 2016
Due: December 31, 2017
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk

Crewed mission to Mars by 2024
Predicted: September 1, 2016
Due: December 31, 2024
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/science/elon-musk-spacex-starship-mars.html

SpaceX will complete its first uncrewed landing on Mars by 2022
Predicted: September 1, 2016
Due: December 31, 2022
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/science/elon-musk-spacex-starship-mars.html

Within two years, Tesla users will be able to summon their Tesla from across the country
Predicted: January 1, 2016
Due: December 31, 2018
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk

Tesla will have a car that can do full autonomy in about three years
Predicted: October 1, 2015
Due: December 31, 2018
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk

Tesla would eventually grow as big as Apple (worth $700 billion at the time)
Predicted: January 1, 2015
Due: December 31, 2025
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Correct

Source: https://futurism.com/timeline-elon-musk-predictions

A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot
Predicted: October 1, 2014
Due: December 31, 2015
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Correct

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk

90% of miles driven autonomously within three years will be done by Teslas
Predicted: September 1, 2013
Due: December 31, 2016
Resolved: September 7, 2025
Incorrect

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk

Hyperloop will be operational by 2030
Predicted: August 12, 2013
Due: December 31, 2030
Unresolved

Source: https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/how-long-hyperloop